Is Gold Expected to Go Up Even Higher? My 10-Year Analysis

I’ll cut the fluff: yes, gold is likely to go higher. But not for the reasons you keep hearing on CNBC. After personally running a metals-focused portfolio for nearly a decade, I’ve learned that the shiny yellow metal doesn’t obey normal rules. In this article, I’ll walk you through the forces I see pushing it up—and a few that might surprise you.

Why Gold Keeps Climbing

The first thing everyone points to is inflation. And sure, the CPI numbers aren’t pretty. But here’s the part most analysts miss: gold is pricing in something deeper than transitory inflation. It’s reacting to the slow erosion of trust in fiat currency systems. I remember sitting in a 2019 conference where a former Fed official joked, “We can always print more.” That joke isn’t funny anymore. Gold is the only asset you can’t print.

The Dollar Dilemma

When the dollar falls, gold rises—everyone knows that. But the current dynamic is more nuanced. The dollar index (DXY) has been range-bound, yet gold broke out. Why? Because global reserve diversification is accelerating. I’ve spoken to fund managers in Dubai and Singapore who are quietly shifting reserves into gold. They’re not announcing it. The official numbers from the IMF show a slow decline in dollar reserves, but the real shift is happening off-balance-sheet.

Central Bank Buying Spree

In 2023, central banks bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold. That’s a record. And 2024 is pacing to be even higher. But here’s what nobody says: the buying is less about hedging inflation and more about geopolitical alignment. Countries like China, Russia, and India want to reduce dependence on the US financial system. Gold is a neutral reserve asset. It doesn’t get sanctioned. I’ve seen firsthand how Chinese state-owned banks have increased their gold trading desks. The infrastructure build is real.

Who’s buying the most?

Technical Picture: Room to Run?

Let’s be real: gold is technically overbought on the daily RSI. But in bull markets, overbought can stay that way for months. I look at the weekly chart instead. The weekly MACD is still rising, and the 50-week moving average is far below price—a classic sign of a strong trend. The only major resistance I see is the psychological $2,500 level. If that breaks, the next stop could be $3,000. I don’t throw out numbers like that lightly—I’ve been burned before.

Risks That Could Derail the Rally

Every gold bull tells you it’s only up. That’s a dangerous mindset. Here are three risks that keep me up at night:

1. A sudden dollar liquidity squeeze – if the Fed reverses course and tightens aggressively, gold could drop 20% in a month. I’ve seen it in 2013.
2. Crypto stealing the narrative – younger investors see Bitcoin as “digital gold.” If crypto goes mainstream as a reserve asset, gold’s safe-haven premium shrinks.
3. Economic depression – yes, gold performs well in recessions, but in a true liquidity event (like 2008), everything gets sold for cash. Gold fell 30% in 2008 before recovering.

Investing Strategies for This Environment

You don’t want to go all-in. I learned that the hard way in 2020. Instead, I use a three-layer approach:

• Layer 1 (core): Physical gold ETFs (like GLD or IAU) – 10% of portfolio. Don’t use futures unless you’re a pro.
• Layer 2 (tactical): Gold miners (GDX) – they offer more leverage but are riskier. I buy when the gold price to miners index ratio is high.
• Layer 3 (optional): Gold options – only if you can stomach premiums. I sell puts on GLD for income.

Frequently Asked Questions

This article is based on my personal trading experience and publicly available data. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research.